Gambling
From FiranMUX
The following text was written by the player of Wendos (circa November 2004) from FiranMUX. He can be reached via [1].
Contents |
Pools
A pool is best run for an event which has a large number of possible outcomes, and no clear favourite. Everybody pays a fixed fee to enter the competition, then picks, or is assigned, one or more outcomes. The winner may be assumed to be the person(s) closest to the actual outcome, or the pool may remain open for another round if the winner was not chosen - a rollover. A very basic pool idea would be a lottery event, where you pay perhaps 100 stenis for a ticket with four numbers on it. If your numbers match the winning numbers, you win the prize. A standard prize for those sorts of pools would be a percentage of the overall takings, usually 50% to the winner and 25% to second place, although a flat fee or item as a prize are not uncommon.
From a Firan bookmaker's point of view, you can't lose on a pool, although profits tend to be very small, as the payout is a direct percentage of the takings. Ideally, to run a pool, you should aim for the highest possible takings, which usually means juggling the entrance fee according to your expected market. If the price is too high, the punters won't enter, and takings will be lower overall.
Straight Bets (Winner Takes All)
A straight bet is actually a very simplified pool, with no cut for the bookmaker. This is when one person challenges another person(s) with a wager which is then matched, and the winner takes all. Examples of this would be a simple 'Bet you 100 stenis I can run to that tree before you can,' or the coded Tempt Fate card game. The prize is always 100% of the takings.
From a Firan bookmaker's point of view, these are not good business. Overall profit will average to zero, assuming you're lucky. These sorts of bets are the domain of the professional gambler, not the bookmaker, and should be viewed as such. Partake at your own risk.
Simple Weighted Bets (Odds)
A simple weighted bet is loosely based on the probability of any outcome occurring. If an outcome is twice as unlikely, anyone betting on that outcome will get twice as much money back. An almost exact example of this would be the coded roulette game. There are 74 possible outcomes, and various combinations on which you may bet. The probability of the ball landing on red, for example, is very slightly less than 0.5 (36 out of 74), so should you win, you get 1/0.5 times your money back, which is twice your money back, or 2:1 (see the section on odds below). There is a slight discrepancy between the odds and probability in this case due to the 0 and 00 slots, so it's not a perfect example.
From a Firan bookmaker's point of view, a simple weighted bet will average 0 profit, until you add in a difference between the probability and odds, as with the roulette. They're good as an example, or for hard coded games, but bad for business. However, don't discard their use as a tool to draw people in for other events or to make a profit in other areas. Just because the game itself earns you no money, encouraging them to come to you and buy your food and drink, or place more wagers on other events while they're there can be helpful.
Complex Weighted Bets (Odds)
The complex weighted bet takes account of the probability of an event, AND the number of people and amount of money likely to be bet on that event. If you were to flip a coin and use simple weighted odds, each outcome, heads or tails, would be at 2:1, as each are equally likely. However, if five people started to bet on heads, and only one on tails, the favoured outcome, heads, would have to offer shorter odds, in an attempt to even the spread, while the outsider, tails, might lengthen their odds. In other words, the odds depend on how people are betting, not just on what's likely to happen. This is the primary reason that odds change before an event, as bets are taken and some outcomes prove to be more popular wagers than others. It is important to note that while the odds often reflect the actual probability, they are not always a good guide, as they instead show the popularity among the various gamblers (or suspected popularity, as judged by the bookmaker) for an outcome.
From a Firan bookmaker's point of view, this is where the hard work comes in. To be sure of avoiding a loss, and to play things safe (bookmaking is a business, after all, not a game), you should attempt ensure your spread. By this I mean that regardless of the actual outcome, the total amount you pay out should be roughly the same, and MUST be lower than your total income. As more people bet on the favourites, lower their odds and lengthen the odds on the outsiders to encourage people to bet there. Always set a ceiling, depending on roughly how many bets you expect to get, and how much you expect your total income to be. If most people are betting 100 stenis, and somebody comes in betting 100,000, you could end up in a serious amount of debt if they win. As a general guide, if a probability is known, divide by between two and four to give basic starting odds, in order to play it safe. Firan has a finite number of punters who'll bet on any event, and just two or three bets in the wrong place with the wrong odds could upset your careful plans. The longer the odds you offer, on the other hand, the more people will win, so the more likely they are to bet. Compromise is the name of the game.
Odds
So what are all these numbers? 3:2? 5:1? 6:5? What do they all mean?
The simplest way to read it is that you win A stenis back for every B stenis you bet, where A:B are the odds. We established previously that odds of 2:1 mean you win twice your money back, and now we see why. For every 1 steni, you get back 2. Similarly 3:1 or 4:1 would get you three times or four times your bet back. REMEMBER: YOU WILL NEVER PAY OUT MORE THAN YOUR INITIAL BET.
Extrapolating this, it's no longer quite so confusing to see that 3:2 must mean you get 3 stenis back for every two you bet, or one and a half times your bet. Not so much money, so these are shorter odds than 2:1. To find which the shortest odds are, divide the first number by the second, so 3:2 = 3/2 = 1.5, whereas 2:1 = 2/1 = 2, or 6:5 = 6/5 = 1.2. Clearly 6:5 are very short odds, usually reserved for a clear favourite. Also note that since your bet is always paid up front (or the bookie's head explodes), a bet of 100 stenis at 3:2 would win you 150 stenis, a total PROFIT of 50 stenis.
If a bookmaker declares an outcome to be at 'evens', this is 1:1. While you could, technically still bet on this, there would be little point, as you would only win back the money you bet and no more. This is usually reserved for people offering silly bets, where the odds would be so short to be barely worth it (eg. What are the odds that I won't get struck by lightning on this beautiful summer's day), or for clear favourites at events (eg. a fully grown renowned gladiator at a kid's BR).
If you think the odds you're offered are too short, try suggesting something more reasonable to the bookmaker. Nine times in ten, they'll cut a deal with you to be assured of your bet.
How to be a Good Bookie
- Do your research.
I can't stress this enough. Not only should you research the event you're bookmaking, to find out rough probabilities, you should research your audience. Who's likely to attend? Who's likely to compete? If possible send out messengers before the event to ask the likely competitors if they will. Who's likely to bet on who, and why? Learn who likes to place the high bets, who's friends or family with whom, and stay alert for any changes in these. A mer in the process of courting a mes might well bet on her for support, whereas an Istariniad is unlikely to bet on an Aurik, and so on.</br> - Set limits on bets.
Set a maximum amount for any one bet. This both safeguards you, and gives the punters an idea of what sort of sums they should be betting. If you cap at 10,000, expect a lot of 'small' bets at 1-2,000, several at 5-6,000 and two or three at the full amount. If you cap at 100,000, expect every bet to be proportionally higher. Nobody likes to look like a cheapskate, betting only 1,000 when everyone else is betting 50,000. On a related note, the first public bet you get makes a huge difference. Try to approach the high betters first, as people will generally match the first wager, and giving them a cap gives them an idea of how much to bet, otherwise they just burble and can't make up their minds.</br>
Under most circumstances, it's not profitable to cap the total number of wagers any one person can make. The ideal solution in most cases is for them to bet evenly on every outcome, although they will invariably lose overall by doing so, assuming your odds are well thought out, but again without a cap, people often burble and think they can only bet on one. Suggest to them that there's a limit, and the mindset changes to think they should make the most of their range within those restrictions, and are more likely to place more bets. For example in offering a pool, telling the punters you'll allow no more than five bets per person makes them think that everyone else is likely placing five bets, so they should do so themselves as well, to maximise their chances of winning.</br> - Do the legwork.
Simply standing and waiting for bets to come to you is not an option. You will fail. A few public announcements, yes, but then approach each prospective punter individually and appeal to their sensibilities. Punters hate hard work. Suggest to them a bet, an amount, and the odds, and all they have to do is nod. This is where your research comes in handy. Personalise your approach. Nobody wants to talk to a machine, and people are less likely to bet if they think you just want their money. Remember details about them to bring up in conversation later. They'll often be pleasantly surprised. Before an event, be FAST. Zip round each person in turn, as you usually only have 5-10 minutes to get in as many bets as you can. Don't wait for slow posers or idlers. You don't have time.</br> - Be confidential, honest and prompt.
A good bookie relies on repeat business. Don't be tempted to try to throw a fight to earn a few extra stenis. Your odds should get you through no matter who wins, and people will come back to you for more. Immediately you get the results of an event, send out the winnings, and keep good accounts. Keep your promises. If somebody wishes to remain anonymous in placing a wager, respect that, and do not disclose their details to anyone else.</br> - Take advantage of every opportunity.
If an event suddenly comes up, immediately be thinking how you can best make a living from it. Somebody makes a speech asking why an event hasn't yet happened, run a pool on when you expect it to. Somebody's put on trial, run odds on the outcome. Never pass up a chance. If nothing appears to be going on, use your head and think of something to bet on. There should rarely if ever be a time when you don't have something to tempt the gamblers of the city.</br>
